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How Many Vehicles Lucid Motors Will Produce in 2021



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luxury electric vehicle maker Lucid Motors has attracted a lot of interest from investors recently. The company recently announced plans to go public through a reverse merger with Churchill Capital Corp IV (NYSE: CCIV), a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). You can read a full breakdown of Lucid Motors stock over at Millennial Money, but I'm going to talk here about how many vehicles it plans to manufacture this year, and how long it could take to ramp up to full production.
There's no shortcut for building cars
Lucid Motors finished the first phase of its 999,000-square-foot Casa Grande, Arizona, factory in December, and management says that it will start production of the fully electric Lucid Air by this spring. So how many of the vehicles will it make this year? About 7,000 at the most.
While the company says the Arizona facility already has the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles per year, investors should remember that building cars, particularly during the early stages of production, is very difficult. Let's not forget that Tesla CEO Elon Musk described his company as being in "production hell" when it was in the early months of manufacturing its Model 3 in 2017 -- and that period occurred after Tesla had about 10 years of vehicle production experience under its belt.
If a company like Tesla suffered through ramp-up problems on a new model even after it had built several vehicles, you can bet that Lucid Motors will have some growing pains in the first year (or more) of production of its first model.
Lucid says that it will continue expanding its Arizona factory, increasing its square footage to 5.1 million by 2028, and will eventually reach an annual capacity of 365,000 vehicles. But that will take time. Keep in mind that Tesla just had its first year with 500,000 vehicle deliveries in 2020.
How Lucid plans to avoid "production hell"
Lucid's execs have made several comments indicating that they plan to do things a little bit differently than Tesla, in ways they hope will allow them to avoid some of their competitors' mistakes. One aspect of that plan is their strategy of limiting Lucid's factory capacity to only what it needs right now.
Peter Hochholdinger, Lucid's vice president of manufacturing and a former Tesla employee, told Axios in January, "Production hell means you didn't plan very well." Ouch.
Now, those are some bold words from a company that has yet to sell a single commercial vehicle yet, but it shows that Lucid really wants to get its vehicle production right. By intentionally starting with limited vehicle production in 2021 and not building a huge factory upfront, the company thinks it can be more efficient and avoid some pitfalls that tripped up Tesla as it raced to boost its output.
Over the next two years, Lucid will work on expanding its Arizona facility while also gearing up for its next vehicle, the Gravity SUV. When the next phase of the factory expansion is completed, Lucid says it will be able to produce 90,000 vehicles per year.
After decades of failures, finally electric vehicles are making a bid for the top spot in automotive propulsion. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) busted that door wide open and hundreds of companies are trying to rush through it. Most likely, the bulk of them will fail but there are few standouts. Churchill Capital Corp (NYSE:CCIV) is bringing one that has high-end promise. Recently they brought Lucid motors public through a SPAC. CCIV stock, like many other SPACs. is already a wild ride. Today we try to make sense of owning it.
Before deciding on any stock investors need to define the time frame for the position. If this is a long-term commitment, then choosing the perfect time is a waste of effort. But for the rest of us, we prefer finding entry levels that makes sense.
For example, buying it at $64 per share was most definitely not an obvious point of entry last month. Those who did that lost 55% of their investment. After this CCIV stock debacle, now it looks like a more promising starting point.
Like most other EV SPAC ventures, it’s all a pipe dream still. They are in pre-revenue mode with promises of future successes. There’s nothing wrong with risking money on potential, as long as the size of the risk is reasonable. Investors should label this as a speculative bet that CCIV stock will grow into its current price.
Furthermore, this one’s addressable market so far looks more limited than the rest (more on this later).

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My dude, it’s starting out luxury vehicles just like Tesla did in order to gain more revenue and then go to lower end vehicles

by John Battista 1 month ago

I'm afraid it will subside for a while

by Hugo 25 1 month ago

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